FPL Scouting Notebook: Takeaways from Gameweek 4

The less we say about my wildcard, the better.

Hail Cheaters, and welcome to my completely subjective (albeit 100% accurate) takeaways from GW4.

Although I may have, somehow, increased my rank by 50% *after playing my wildcard* I'm hoping that, like a new transfer, my new wildcard squad is simply taking a moment to bed in, so to speak. I'm keeping the faith. For now. Talk to me again in a week.

Ready for some Gameweek 4 thoughts? Here we go…

Southampton 0-3 Man United

Man United's back line is relatively stable, affordable, and they've now kept 2 clean sheets in their first four, with a nice run to come from GW8 onwards. Even if you don't trust them enough to shell out 5m for De Ligt or Dalot, Mazraoui and Martinez are both decent WC options at 4.5m.

My problem (fantasy-wise) with Man United's midfield/frontline is who to target? Bruno is too pen-reliant for me to buy at 8.4m, Garnacho can’t be trusted to start, and Rashford can't be trusted, period. Amad Diallo (5m) picked up an assist, created an impressive 6 chances, and had a shot on target to boot. When I finally give up on Morgan Rogers (I haven't yet!) he might be who I look to.

Brighton 0-0 Ipswich

Not a lot to say about this one. Brighton blew a few chances (21 total shots taken by them in the match) and Ipswich had a couple of nice moments on the counter-attack. Ferguson now back which added to a very crowded forward/attacking midfield with Rutter/Ferguson/Welbeck/Pedro, though a nil-nil points to the importance of Pedro (out with a previously unreported injury) to the attack.

Crystal Palace 2-2 Leicester City

Mateta with 2 goals on 4 shots and 1.36 xG and is officially back as a transfer option, though maybe less appealing if you already have Eze — do you trust this team enough to invest two mid/fwd spots in them? I have no idea what's going on with their defense, though I wonder if the problem is more in their central midfield, but again, it's early and they're incorporating a new CB and Nketiah (6 shots!) up front.

Two goals, four bonus points in four matches for Vardy. Maybe he can just do it forever—FPL aside, I'm rooting for him—and he's priced to buy at 5.7m.

Fulham 1-1 West Ham

RIP Muniz the fantasy asset. However, it's another return (on a very solid .88 combined xG + xA) from the 5.7m Emile Smith-Rowe. If he can get close to averaging an attacking return every other match (a tough ask, granted) he'll be one of the season's best values.

West Ham continue to be really under the radar, fantasy-wise, but honestly I don't know who I'd recommend besides Bowen (2 goals, 1 assists, 7.5m), but at his price I'd still rank him below a number of other options (Mbeumo, Diaz, etc). A decent 3 week run ahead, though, including Ipswich in GW7.

Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest

Liverpool with this month's "fluky post-International Break performance." Today's 3-1 win at AC Milan should clear up any serious worries about this squad.

Diaz was rested for today's UCL match and looks like the better option than Jota by nearly every metric if you look exclusively at the current season's data. Diaz was also really unlucky not to score in the first half v Forest after making a great along the goal line. Still a small sample size, obviously, and Jota is playing in the forward slot, which should in theory lead to more attacking returns.

Nottingham Forest have graduated into the "totally solid" category of Premier League squads. It's a great level to get to, and from a fantasy POV usually means you get better performance numbers (more goals, more clean sheets) at relegation-fodder prices. Gibbs-White (6.5m), Wood (6.1), Aina (4.4m—a steal!) and even Sels (4.5m) all look like reasonable buys ahead of a nice run of matches.

Man City 2-1 Brentford

7 points the hard way for Ederson this weekend, with an assist (the fourth of his career at Man City), 5 saves, and a bonus point. Haaland is still the only option I want on this team, though I'll admit I might be selling Rico Lewis (4.7m) short.

SUCH a shame for Brentford to lose Wissa for about two months on that Kovacic tackle. I'm not convinced that Kevin Schade is an FPL gold mine — just 2 goals across 29 Premier League matches — but he's only 22 years old and costs just 5.4m. A fun punt if you're in the mood for a fun punt.

Aston Villa 3-2 Everton

McNeil with a goal (on about .00000001 xG) and assist. I've always rated him as a player, but he's a known commodity in FPL and has never really pushed on and become a decent asset—stay away (alas).

As for DCL: Folks, he's officially #OnTheTable, especially with Wissa out and Pedro potentially at risk, too. 2 goals, 1 assist (inc. 3 shots and .76 xG at Villa) and a GREAT run of fixtures ahead. It's just a gamble on his health, but a 5.9m FWD can be easily swapped to a ton of other options. (Update: he was out of the EFL Cup match with an illness, but it's hoped he'll be ready by this weekend).

Morgan Rogers went, and Morgan Rogers'd it again. It's an FPL problem, as he's playing well for Villa, and I doubt he's at risk of losing his spot.

I'm a little spooked by how well Duran is playing to move heaven and earth to fit Ollie Watkins in, but with his brace, he's back to being one of the very few non-Haaland forwards you can rely on in fantasy.

Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea

For all the Chelsea transfer chaos, their back is starting to look fairly stable, with Fofana (4.5m), Cucurella (5m), Colwill (4.5), and Sanchez (4.5m) all starting every match this season. They still conceded 1.78 xG, 19 shots(!), and 7 shots on target, so stability has not translated into sterling defensive play but hey, baby steps. Mixed fixtures ahead, but you could do worse than Sanchez as your 4.5m keeper on a wildcard.

Off match for Palmer (0 shots, 1 chance created) but nothing to worry about. He's the only player I trust in the entire squad from a fantasy POV—and maybe from a non-fantasy POV. Jackson, Nkunku, Felix, Neto, even Madueke—too unsettled for me to consider any of them.

Evanilson's pen miss keeps him off the FPL radar for now, despite Leicester and Southampton coming. Forwards can have such fickle confidence, and I want to see how he bounces back. 3 shots and 90 mins from Semenyo—I still like him as a value buy, despite the 1 pointer.

Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal

Just one goal conceded in 4 matches from Arsenal, including tricky matches away to Villa and Spurs. I'm still benching Saliba for Man City, but I already know it will come back to haunt me (do I get any credit for that? no? damn.)

Awful timing playing away to Atalanta on Thursday ahead of the Man City match—how much will Arteta rotate? I'm not sure it matters too much in FPL. He'll play his strongest XI, Saka is a perma-start in fantasy, and I'd probably start White and Gabriel if I had either (Saliba less appealing simply because he doesn't have the same goal/assist threat).

As for Spurs: 1 shot and 1 chance created for Son. That's three blanks in four and if you still have him it's probably time to move him on to Palmer or find the extra $$ for Salah. 4 chances created for Porro on Sunday: as I non-owner I have to watch these Spurs matches through my fingers. Solanke was all right (we'll cut him some slack for now) and will be worth a look at 7.5m once Spurs find some form—it'll happen soon enough.

Wolves 1-2 Newcastle

It was one of those real life > FPL matches, where nothing good happened for the high-ownership players—Isak, Gordon, non-Schar Newcastle defenders—but all 3 goals were such bangers that it justified your time outlay.

Isak off at halftime with double-vision, but will probably (?) be fine. I still think he's good for 20 goals this season. Anthony Gordon is looking like an overpriced FPL asset, though for what it's worth Gordon's underlying stats (2 shots, 2 chances created, .6 combined xG/xA) were good for this match, including a shot that hit the post.

If you have both I'd prioritize Gordon over Isak, maybe looking at Luis Diaz (rested in the UCL) if you can afford and aren't already tripled up on LIV. Also, could Harvey Barnes (6.4m) force himself into a starting spot this season? Only two years removed from a 13 goal season (and a 10 assist season the year before that).

Wolves have 3 poor fixtures in their next four, so they're still an avoid, though Strand Larsen showed a bit of xFeisty and now has a goal and assist on the season. There is always room on the bandwagon for another decent sub 6m FWD.