FPL Scouting Notebook: Gameweek 6

Why don't they just make the whole plane out of Cole Palmer?

If there’s a theme to this FPL season through six weeks, it’s that there’s no set and forget template in FPL this season. This is, obviously, great news, though it does lead to a lot of second-guessing with squad selection.

For example, this week’s “everyone’s on their wildcard” narrative ended up being defined by whether or not you got Cole Palmer. There were reasonable arguments for and against Palmer heading into GW6 but Mein Gott, what a swing in OR for owners and non-owners alike.

In this week’s FPL Scouting Notebook, I discuss Palmer and the rest of the weekend’s matches. Let’s get into it…

Newcastle 1-1 Man City

As we saw in the Champions League, Man City can still roll over the Slovan Bratislava’s of the world, but tougher competition will be a struggle with no Rodri, no KDB, and the post-Haaland transfer windows failing to delivery.

It was nice to see Gvardiol score, but until they stop conceding dumb goals and pens on the counter I don’t want any Man City defenders. Maybe Foden (who did score in the UCL today) comes back into contention, post-International Break. For now I’m sticking with a “Haaland or no one” approach to Man City in FPL.

There a good chance Isak is out again this weekend, so obviously keep and start the out-of-position Gordon if you’ve got him. Bad fixtures ahead, though, so I wouldn’t buy him if I didn’t already have him.

Harvey Barnes’ (6.5m) streak of attacking returns in four consecutive matches came to an end, though he did have 4 shots in the match. Definitely more of a “watchlist” guy than a buy.

Arsenal 4-2 Leicester City

There’s nothing to be done about Saka ahead of GW7. He scored in the Champions League and he’s about to face a truly abject side in Southampton (MAYBE they’ll turn it around, but at the moment: abject). Despite his blank, he took 7 shots and had a .79 xA — just bad luck. I would 100% captain him this weekend if I owned him—and yes, it’s dumb that I don’t.

Havertz’s goal may have been lucky, but it’s a right-place-right-time classic forward’s goal. Like Saka, Kai took 7 shots in the match (and unlike Saka, he scored on both Sunday and Tuesday).

Leicester somehow scored 2 goals on a combined match xG of .32. Just a bit of randomness (though all credit to Brandon’s boy, James Justin) — I would still happily double-up on Arsenal defender assets moving forward and plan to by GW12.

Vardy was irrelevant again. Leicester host BOU this weekend so that at least gives him a chance — if nothing else, they’ve found a way to score in every match this year.

Brentford 1-1 West Ham

One of the great feelings in FPL is when a transfer *instantly* pays off—thank you, Mbeumo!

Great form, good fixtures ahead, can be bought for less than 7.5m, get him into your squad if he isn’t already.

Schade (5.4m) and Carvalho (4.8m) both started, though neither of them seem like imminent buys. Carvalho is at least cheap enough to be a decent 5th mid.

Soucek has had a great start, but it does feel a little damning for West Ham that he’s the only player I ever talk about in these round-ups. It feels like they’re still searching for an identity.

Chelsea 4-2 Brighton

4 first half goals from Cole Palmer and when viewed through a certain—very narrow, FPL-specific—lens, he could have delivered even more. I bypassed Saka and brought in Palmer this week, that’s how much I think he might be the next Harry Kane. Given his superstar upside, 10.7m is a reasonable price imo.

I did take a risk and dropped Salah for Palmer ahead of their price change. I don’t think Palmer is that much better than Saka—I seem them as roughly equal, but I want to use the extra 2m in price difference to shore up my starting XI.

Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace

Until they figure out how to click without Olise, the Eze dream is over for FPL managers. I think they’ll figure it out and he’ll be worth having later on, but that doesn’t help us right now.

Dwight McNeil (5.6m) is in the form of his life, equaling last season’s goal tally of 3 within the first six weeks. Proceed with caution: he’s scored those 3 goals on a total of just .5 xG across all six matches (to his credit, he also has 2 assists and 3 xA).

Longtime pod listeners will know that I’ve always rated McNeil—and their fixtures through November are great—so I think he’s an ok speculative buy. Personally, I think his fantasy performance won’t be sustained and I’m not looking to get him in.

Forest 0-1 Fulham

I think you can straight-up write off Forest’s performance from an FPL point-of-view, as they were playing without their key cog in Morgan Gibbs-White.

Meanwhile, lots to like from Fulham—including Antonee Robinson taking 2 shots! An impressive 3 goals in 3 for Jimenez (poor Muniz, you had your shot). Man City next so I’d hold off on buying any Fulham assets.

With that said, I think it’s fine to start Jimenez or Smith-Rowe in this match — win or lose, I’d be surprised if Fulham didn’t score this weekend.

Wolves 1-2 Liverpool

Luis Diaz (8m) finally had an off match (1 shot and 1 chance created). I obviously, wouldn’t be looking to move him out yet, but…his track record as an FPL asset before this season isn’t great. If Diaz seems to be coming back down to earth as a fantasy asset—I’m not saying it’s going to happen, just that it wouldn’t be shocking—then there are lots of other options in his price range and below.

Salah got the goal and bonus, but he, again, felt a little peripheral for the third straight week. If that seems like I’m setting the bar too high, it’s only because his 12.7m price tag is such a squad-constrictor that it’s impossible not to ask if you can get close-enough returns for cheaper (which I think Palmer offers; Saka doesn’t quite).

Ipswich 2-2 Aston Villa

Watkins has 4 goals in his last 3 matches and is quietly sneaking back into his rightful place as the second best forward in FPL outside of Haaland. He had a slow start (he might have been rushed back from the Euros), but he offers incredible consistency at a fair 9.1m price and even his minutes are starting to creep back up—80+ mins in each of the last 3 PL matches.

Add Liam Delap (5.6m, two goals v Villa) to the pool of intriguing, sub-6m forwards. I still trust Chris Wood the most from this lot because of his consistency, but Delap’s fixtures are strong through Gameweek 17 (the flip side to Ipswich’s difficult start) so he’s a decent set-and-forget option. And fun to have at just 2.5% overall ownership.

Man United 0-3 Spurs

Bruno’s red card probably saved a lot of fantasy managers from persisting any longer with him. You can move on guilt-free now!

Solanke (7.6m) with 4 shots, a chance created, and his second goal in two matches. Like Watkins, he was a preseason template pick and is beginning to show why. The only problem is his price point–it’s not clear yet if he has the high ceiling of the Watkins/Havertz types, or if he’s worth the price hike over the big pool of 6m and cheaper FWD options.

Bournemouth 3-1 Southampton

Semenyo (5.7m) with another awesome match—scored a goal, unlucky not to get an assist (robbed via a double-deflection), 4 shots, and 2 chances created. His price is starting to creep up from “good value” to “fairly valued,” but he’s clearly the driving force of post-Solanke Bournemouth.

No one else is worth owning on either squad—and, to be honest, I’d probably avoid Semenyo too if you don’t already have him. Leicester in GW7 is great, but is followed by a trio of tough fixtures: Arsenal-Villa-Man City.