FPL Scouting Notebook: Gameweek 3

Just get all the expensive guys.

Hail Cheaters! Gameweek 3 is a wrap, and the first international break is here. After a decade of FPL podcasting, you'd think I would be used to the autumn breaks, but EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. the first break comes around and my response is "Wait, already? How is that even possible!"

Anyway, enjoy the extra time with your families and ponder what exactly the "optimal" FPL squad is at the moment. It might be a team where everybody costs either 10m+ or under 5m. I'm still figuring that out myself.

Might I even wildcard? I might. I'll discuss on tonight's pod.

Here are my quick thoughts on the weekend's matches:

Arsenal 1-1 Brighton

Declan Rice has been great for Arsenal, but even putting the red card aside, it seems he sometimes wants to be almost everywhere on the pitch *except* in front of his defense. This isn't really a fantasy-related complaint; I just find it annoying! Also, he cost me a Saliba a clean sheet, so consider this today's micro-rant.

Saka has returned in every match so far, but he doesn't quite bring the same level of FPL excitement (or, frankly, as high of an FPL ceiling) as Cole Palmer. It feels like a matter of time before I make the swap, whether it's the "smart" move or not.

Another goal from Pedro and a really good week in general for the GW1 team we all had when the game launched in late July (Salah + Haaland double-up, Eze, etc.). Another assist from the 5.5m Minteh, who is definitely on the watchlist.

Brentford 3-1 Southampton

We should take results vs. Southampton cautiously, but Mbeumo (7.1m) had an impressive 2-goal, 4 shot, 3 chances created performance, and Wissa (6.1m) scored another as well. Man City and Spurs away in the next two, but their run from GW6 to GW13 is fantastic:

Everton 2-3 Bournemouth

Semenyo with 2 goals, 1 assists (1.2 xG/1.3 xG), looks like an absolute boss on the pitch, and still no price rise? We should all be targeting him! CHE home in GW4 is fine + SOT/lei in GWs 6 and 7. A steal at 5.5m.

Everton are still an avoid, but BOU's comeback obscured a one-goal, one-assist match from the 5.9m DCL. Maybe there's something there long-term?

Ipswich 1-1 Fulham

Leif "Assist Master" Davis finally picks up his first of the season, along with 2 bonus points. A nice run of fixtures ahead for Ipswich, too—you could do a lot worse with a 4.5m defender punt.

Rough start to the season for Muniz (0 goals/assists on a combined 1.0 xG and 0.0 xA) and a quiet match for Smith-Rowe. Easy move to Joao Pedro for Muniz owners. Robinson continues to be a great FPL buy (and is really fun to watch, to boot). No clean sheets so far, but 2 assists and 2 bonus points in 3 matches more than makes up for it.

Leicester 1-2 Villa

Those of us without Rogers and Watkins are like the Jesse from Breaking Bad "he can't keep getting away with this!" meme, though this was a quieter match from Rogers than his last two weeks (0 shots, 1 chance created). There was another early sub (61 minutes) for Watkins and a goal from his replacement, Duran. Watkins is obviously fine long-term but Duran has played well enough that UCL/Premier League rotation risk is probably higher than I'd initially suspected. I'm not sure if it puts me off Watkins, but his days of being an xMins legend may be over.

Forest 1-1 Wolves

Chris Wood! 1 goal, 5 shots, and a late brace taken away by an offside call. He even got 90 mins. The fixtures aren't great ahead, but he's shown enough to be a plug-in option all season during the right run of matches. It was a frustrating match for Morgan Gibbs-White owners, but 3 shots and 3 chances created are encouraging.

I really don't have any Wolves takes right now—I can't figure out what's going on there at the moment, so I'm staying far away, fantasy-wise—but credit to Bellegarde for a beauty of an equalizer.

West Ham 1-3 Man City

I don't understand the fixation on Haaland's overperformance on his xG this season, like he's some unproven commodity who has just arrived from another league. Man City are the Premier League's best team and they build the attack around creating chances for Haaland—that's really all you need to keep in mind. He's also virtually an immortal lock with Alvarez out and Bobb injured, though I suppose Foden can possibly fill in up front during especially busy stretches in the fall. Even if I wildcard during the IB he's not going anywhere.

Defense is still a question mark and, in my opinion, should be avoided (even Rico Lewis, sadly). There are too many questions marks as they reintegrate Rodrigo and with rotation expected during the extended UCL.

Chelsea 1-1 Palace

I was kind of hoping for another Eze blank just for the comedy (less funny for owners, granted) of him climbing higher and higher on the FPL algorithms despite blanking every gameweek. Obviously, Eze has been a bit unlucky, but he's sort of a high-risk, high-reward option in general—his teammates aren't going to help him much, so you're relying a lot on high volume but low percentage outside-the-box shots.

Madueke, Jackson (1 goal, 4 shots), Palmer (5 chances created, 1 assist, 2 shots) all looked good. Tons of attacking potential and a meh defense—are Chelsea this year's version of 2023-2024 Tottenham?

Newcastle 2-1 Spurs

One of those weird matches where Son nicked a bonus based on, as far as I can tell, his excellent pass accuracy. I lucked into a brace with him in GW2 and we still haven't seen the best version of their attack with a healthy Solance, but if I wildcard this week… he's gone. A wild *six* shots from Porro this week. Despite the unlucky 1 pointer he seems fixture-proof—I'd start him even in the upcoming North London Derby.

Mediocre upcoming fixtures and underwhelming performances from Isak and Gordon put them both in the "luxury sell" category: it's not urgent, but if you have no other problems I'd be looking for alternatives.

Man United 0-3 Liverpool

All the debate about Haaland vs. Salah, and the answer, of course, was that you need both. For the sake of my 50 Buck Cup with Brandon, I'm glad I helped talk him out of the double-up at the 11th hour :)

If I wildcard this week, it will be to get Salah and possibly even triple-up on Liverpool. Two goals on two shots from Diaz. I *think* I still prefer Jota as an out-of-position asset, but he had a quiet match (1 shot, 0 chances created) so if $$ is tight you might be better off skipping both and going with Salah and TAA. I'm just going to have to admit I got it wrong on both of them.

Even Bruno truthers have to be scared after his 1 shot, 0 chances created performance, though Southampton away in GW4 means he's not a must sell.