FPL Scouting Notebook: Gameweek 2
Dispatches from my trip to the Left Coast.
Like the dedicated FPL podcaster that I am, I decided it would be a good idea to take an immediate vacation the first week of the Premier League season.
I took a short trip to Portland with my family—thanks, Pat, for filling in on the podcast!—where, among other things, I saw MLS’s Portland Timbers play a 4-4 draw in a wildly entertaining match.
I also got to experience watching the Premier League’s 3pm UK kickoff time matches at…7am. Yuck. West Coast Premier League fans are insane, and I respect them for it.
Here are my thoughts on the Premier League matches for Gameweek 2:
Brighton 2-1 Man United
I don’t know how Bruno’s owners put up with the frustration. He’s obviously brilliant, but the squad is the opposite of a finely-tuned machine and you can’t trust anyone to convert the chances he creates. I get the underlying stats argument for keeping him, but personally: I would drop him.
Chris Wood to Joao Pedro ahead of Ipswich in GW4 is tempting. Welbeck is too much of a proven (poor) FPL commodity for me to consider him despite his hot start. Mitoma (6.6m) with two assists in two — he and Minteh (5.5m) both look promising.
Crystal Palace 0-2 West Ham
Soucek—scoring incredibly, given his position, his 28th Premier League goal—is a “tweener” FPL asset: good enough to own, not quite good enough to start. I prefer super cheap benches, so even 5m is too expensive for a bench mid imo, but I think there’s a argument for just getting him and keeping him as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option all season.
If I had Eze I’d be (A) frustrated and (B) absolutely holding him for GW3. Chelsea’s defense looks shaky and he’s been really unlucky. Eze had 5 shots and 4 chances created this weekend, and he’s still cheap enough that you can overlook the lack of returns for a little longer.
Fulham 2-1 Leicester
Emile Smith-Rowe (2024) = Jesse Lingard (2021)? Goalscoring LW/AMs, stuck on the bench of squads overloaded with talent at their position, itching for a chance to start. Lingard scored 9 goals and 3 assists in 10 matches for West Ham in 2021 before coming back to earth. A start anywhere close to that from ESR would be amazing, especially at his 5.6m price.
Man City 4-1 Ipswich
This was just ugly. Man City took their foot of the gas after the scored 3 in about 12 seconds and could have easily doubled that by halftime. At least Ipswish will always have the first half of the Liverpool match and the first goal in this one.
Haaland = season keeper? He’s barely ever going to get rotated and you can simply captain him every single week with a reasonable hope of a return every time out.
Southampton 0-1 Forest
Morgan Gibbs-White with 1 goal, 4 shots, 3 chances created. Reasonably priced at 6.5—a fun player to watch, too! Just a 1 pointer from Chris Wood but he was all over the place and created a massive chance in the first half that Milenkovic flubbed. Pretty grim from Southampton in all facets.
Spurs 4-0 Everton
Because Son scores so many goals on the break there’s always a temptation to wonder if his FPL returns are “real.” And yet…another brace. Solanke owners must be ill to have missed out on this one.
As or Everton: obviously, all of their options are a hard pass for now, but I’m sure Dyche (if he keeps his job) will figure it out— similar to how he did last season. Lots of cheap defenders available once they do.
Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal
Once Arsenal get through their upcoming absurdly tough stretch (see below) you could make a strong case for getting two Arsenal defenders and starting them every match the rest of the season.
I think Saka is a hold through GW8, but it’s a true “you can’t have everyone” FPL season and moving him to Palmer for GWs 3-5, getting him back for GWs 6-8, and moving him again for GWs 9-11 is worth considering if you don’t have any other problems. Hey, maybe that manager is out there.
Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle
Semenyo was everywhere in this match. He’s the sort of super-consistent 5.5m midfielder on which good FPL teams are built.
Isak gets another week, but the temptation to move sideways-ish for Havertz/Watkins or downgrade to a Joao Pedro type to free up $$ for Salah or Palmer is definitely there.
Lewis Hall…sigh. In hindsight, Hall AND Quansah was definitely one punt-y defender pick too many for my squad. Maybe I’ll learn my lesson next season (I won’t).
Wolves 2-6 Chelsea
Nkunku was gone from my side the moment he didn’t start. It’s fine to be patient with proven FPL assets, but he was a punt from the start and there’s no point in digging in my heels—I dropped him for Emile Smith-Rowe before the price changes.
Is Madueke a thing? Is Jackson? Both finished well last season (3 goals, 2 assists in his final 9 starts for Madueke, 4 goals and 1 assist for Jackson) so I don’t think considering either one after this match—leaving aside the massive xG overperformance (6 goals on 1.68 xG lol) — is an overreaction. Madueke does pass the ol’ eye test more than Jackson, for whatever that’s worth.
Obviously Palmer is the one to buy—one (great!) goal, three assists, five shots. I’d strongly consider moving Son for him if I wasn’t trying to fix my calamitous defense.
Liverpool 2-0 Brentford
Is TAA more valuable or less valuable if he keeps getting subbed early? 71 mins and 76 min subs in GW1 and GW2. On the one hand it locks in clean sheets, on the other it’s 20-ish mins of attacking returns against tired defenses lost. Either way, 14 points in 2 matches for the defender. For comparison, among 7m or cheaper midfielders, only Madueke has more points.
Jota, Diaz, Salah, TAA—every preseason pick for Liverpool has been great so far. I need to figure out how to get a second LIV player ahead of GW4. Oh wait, third LIV player…I still have Quansah :(