FPL Scouting Notebook: Gameweek 1
Quick takes from Always Cheating's Josh Landon
With FPL content on YouTube (our podcast included) all the rage, I thought: what better time to lean into the written word?
I've launched this Substack to provide quick, fantasy-focused takeaways from each match. Will they be hot takes? Lukewarm takes? Cold takes. I honestly don't know.
My only goal is to post my actual, authentic opinions—regardless of whether they are technically, tactically, and possibly even factually correct.
Feedback welcome! Unless it's negative. In which case, it's not so welcome.
Here we go:
Friday: Man United 1-0 Fulham
This had the feel of a "throwback" game, which is usually code for a match that's sloppily played but fun to watch. Bruno (8.5m) put up 1.19 xG on his own, only to be kept out by good goalkeeping from Leno (.5m too expensive to own at 5m, painfully), and, let's be honest, a tendency to hammer the ball directly at the keeper in those situations when a little finesse would do. Still, managers were clearly unlucky. The introduction of Zirkzee (7m) and Garnacho (6.5m) led to the only goal, and it feels inevitable that both will get into the XI, possibly as soon as GW2.
As for Fulham, their defense was okay considering the circumstances: opening night at Old Trafford is about as hostile an environment as it gets. Emile Smith-Rowe clearly wasn't ready for an entire match—we should see a better version v. Leicester in GW2. Muniz almost scored a goal through sheer physicality—a fun player to watch!
Side note: this match made me realize that the Bonus Points System change affording 2 BPS for shots on target won't be a game changer unless you're also *scoring* from those shots. 2 of Bruno's three shots on target when down as big chances missed (-3 BPS each), effectively wiping out any BPS gains. It could be most helpful for Virgil Van Dijk types who can get their head on a bunch of chances on corners and free kicks, where everything is typically too frenetic for it also to count as a big chance missed.
Saturday
Ipswich Town 0–2 Liverpool
Salah was fine (but isolated) in the first half and was brilliant in the second half. Do I regret not getting him? Sort of? I did try a few drafts with him, of course, but the versions of my squad that had both Salah and Haaland were too top-heavy for my tastes. It looks great when they both deliver, but if one or both blank the remainder of your squad is often too weak to bail you out, leading to a miserable GW rank. I also still had a bad taste in my mouth from the end of last season, when he looked exhausted and only scored three goals in Liverpool's final 9 PL matches.
Jota was fantastic, as is always true when he's healthy. Missed one good chance. Scored the other. Played more mins (79) than I expected, too. Szoboszlai's price (7m) scared me off, but he looked great in the #10 role and came away with an assist.
Arsenal 2-0 Wolves
Title contenders! I have 2 players in Saka and Saliba, and it doesn't feel like enough. Havertz (8m, 1 goal, 1 assist, 5 shots, two chances created) showed that it was silly of me to worry about Arteta moving him out of the striker spot as long as he's playing this well. And if he stops playing like this? You wouldn't want him in your fantasy team at that point anyway.
Finding the $$ to move from Solanke to Havertz could be popular in the weeks ahead if Solanke fails to impress. Finding even .5m feels challenging at the moment, though.
Everton 0-3 Brighton
Every year, there are 3 to 5 guys on Brighton who I've genuinely never heard of until they show up in the FPL goal/assist updates—such as the 5m, assist-providing Mats Wieffer. Mitoma (6.5m, 1 goal, 4 shots, eight touches in Everton's box—more than Welbeck and Pedro combined) is definitely on the watchlist, though I'll avoid both forwards for now.
One shot from Joao Pedro in the match. Not great.
I know it's related to Financial Fair Play, but watching Everton roll out the same old crew of guys who can't convert chances makes me want to stay away from their midfielders and forwards potentially all season (am I overreacting? Probably). The defense should be fine in the long term. I still trust Dyche on that front.
Newcastle 1-0 Southampton
How can you have any real FPL takeaways from this one after the early red? Obviously still really impressive that Isak grabbed an assist and could have had two if Harvey Barnes had been slightly more alert. There's nothing to worry about on that front. Impressive defensive performance from Newcastle, with tons of good, cheap assets available in Livramento, Hall, and Burn—even Pope at his new and reasonable 5m.
With that said, I'd hold off until the dust settles with the transfer window before moving for any NEW defenders. Trippier leaving would obviously be ideal for Livramento owners. And it's not clear if Dan Burn would still have a starting XI spot if Guehi joins—the RB spot might be Hall's to lose, especially with his ability to take set pieces and corners.
Forest 1-1 Bournemouth
I've said this a lot on the podcast recently, but at some point, I've started to wonder if the name Chris Wood — as boring a name as it gets, though it does lend itself to (increasingly unfunny, sorry everyone) puns — is actually stopping people from taking him more seriously in fantasy. If his name was Sergio "Kun" Aguero, would we all have been more interested in a 6m FWD with *five* double-digit goal seasons in the Premier League and a great run of fixtures to start the season? He did what he often does: 1 goal on 1 shot on target. I'll take it.
Semenyo (5.5m) will probably move back to the right after the Evanilson signing, but he's still decent value. Last season, he scored 8 goals and 4 assists in that same spot (albeit with some xG and xA overperformance). He's a fun player to watch, too!
West Ham 1-2 Villa
The key fantasy assets—basically all of whom are on Villa, with West Ham a fantasy and real-life work-in-progress—were all busts, though Watkins and the defense will all be fine, if not straight-up great, long-term.
Aston Villa hosting Arsenal in GW2 is going to be tricky, so get ready for big, probably premature, sell-offs of Rogers, Konsa, etc., if they lose next weekend. Rogers (5m) had two decent scoring changes and set Watkins up for another—still seems like a great player to own.
Brentford 2–1 Crystal Palace
I'm more worried about not having Eze (7 shots, including two excellent free kicks) despite his GW1 blank. I only got Mbuemo's 7m starting price if they were projecting him for a move to a top 6-ish club, but I may have underestimated him. He looks like the player from the first half of last season, when he was a near must-own. Matches at LIV, MCI, and TOT in the next four make him a non-option, but their run from GW6 to GW13 is fantastic.
Chelsea 0-2 Man City
Despite the endless transfer business, the Chelsea XI that started the match wasn't so different from the end of last season. Palmer still feels like the only Chelsea player worth owning, though I'm holding Nkunku for at least one more GW on principle. With that said, neither Palmer nor Foden seemed match-fit, and I don't feel any urgency to get either.
Looking forward to captaining Haaland in GW2 and hoping his EO stays under 175%.
Leicester 1-1 Spurs
Porro (5.5m, 1 goal, 4 chances created) was excellent. Maddison (7.5m, 1 assist) had one of those matches where you can almost trick yourself into thinking he's worth owning in fantasy. It's a trap!
It was a quiet match from Son and Solanke, but no one should sell ahead of EVE. After that… let's see. I was way too patient last year, and it really came back to bite me, especially on the team value front.
A shout-out to Jamie Vardy. He's probably un-ownable in fantasy due to age, injuries, and his team's overall crap-ness, but he's a legend nonetheless.
That's it for today! These will probably be shorter going forward, but for now, make sure that you subscribe to the Always Cheating Podcast on Spotify, Apple, YouTube—wherever you listen and/or watch.